NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (East Pacific)


05/22/2017 07:30 PM
NHC East Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion

000
AXPZ20 KNHC 230230
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Tue May 23 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0200 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough begins over Colombia near 08N77W, extends
across Panama and Costa Rica to 11N92W, then dips west-southwest
to 08N109W, where the ITCZ continues west-southwest to beyond
06N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is within
60 nm either side of the ITCZ axis between 120W and 138W.

...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A weak pressure gradient will maintain moderate NW breezes west
of Baja California overnight, with combined seas of 3 to 5 ft.
The pressure gradient will tighten somewhat Tuesday, with fresh
nw flow forecast across the waters north of 25N within 90 nm of
the Baja Peninsula through Friday, with combined seas of 4-6 ft.

Gulf of California: Mainly light and variable winds are expected
through Thursday, with seas of 1-3 ft. Model guidance suggests
fresh to locally strong WSW winds near 30N Thursday to Saturday.

South of 16N including the Gulf of Tehuantepec: Expect moderate
cyclonic flow and 4-7 ft seas through early Wednesday, with
winds diminishing Wednesday and Thursday as a trough along 99W
weakens further.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Expect light and variable flow north of 09N to gradually become
a moderate SE to S breeze east of the surface low expected to
develop near 11N95W, with seas building 4-6 ft. Winds diminish
on Tuesday with light and variable flow expected Wednesday and
Thursday and seas of 3 to 6 ft.

Moderate southerly winds are expected S of 09N through Thursday
night, with combined seas gradually subsiding through Friday.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A ridge from 32N140W to near 11N101W will reposition itself from
32N142W to 11N120W by mid week as a weak trough sweeps eastward
across the waters north of 30N Tuesday and Wednesday accompanied
by long period NW swell that will build seas to 6-8 ft along 32N
between 120W and 135W. Elsewhere north of the convergence zone
moderate trade winds are expected with combined seas of 4-6 ft.

$$
Mundell